What Netflix Doesn’t Do

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Founders like to talk about "focus" a lot, but when it comes to creating focused brand messaging many find that it's actually a more frustrating and challenging experience than they expected. The reality is that you face a struggle between two conflicting instincts: the need to clearly and narrowly  define what your company does; and the desire to paint a compelling, expansive, and inspiring picture of what you envision your company will become. 

By definition, using focused and definitive language is an exclusionary act. If you say you build accounting software for SMB's you'll worry you might be in trouble when pitching a Fortune 500 contract. If you say you're a web shop experienced in building e-commerce sites, you are concerned that you'll have trouble with your dream of building a media website. And so on. 

I used the terms "need" and "desire" for a reason however. You may want to paint the most broad and rosy picture of your business, but in order to succeed with brand messaging you absolutely must be able to communicate quickly and simply what kind of thing you are. 

And let's face it, people know how to read past vagueness. So don't tell people you're a leading transportation logistics company if you're a taxi service, or that you're an mobile events food provider if you're a hot dog cart. People like taxis and hot dogs, and they might like you. 

For an excellent example, here's an excerpt on focus from Netflix's investor relations page: 

Netflix is a global Internet TV network offering movies and TV series commercial-free, with unlimited viewing on any Internet-connected screen for an affordable no-commitment monthly fee.

We don’t and can’t compete on breadth of entertainment with Comcast, Sky, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Sony, or Google.  For us to be hugely successful we have to be a focused passion brand.  Starbucks, not 7-Eleven.  Southwest, not United.  HBO, not Dish. 

We don’t offer pay-per-view or ad-supported content.  Those are fine business models that other firms do well.   We are about flat fee unlimited viewing commercial-free. 

We are not a generic “video” company that streams all types of video such as news, user-generated, sports, porn, music video, or reality.   We are a movie and TV series entertainment network. 

Remember, if it's not immediately clear what you are not, then nobody is going to ever know what you actually are. 

Selling Dollars For 85 Cents

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Writing on Above the Crowd, Bill Gurley digs into the recent spate of ultra-high valuation startup investments. 

Over the last few years, the late-stage (pre-IPO) market has become the most competitive, the most crowded, and the frothiest of these financing stages. Investors from all walks of life have decided that “late stage private” is where they want to play. As a result, a “late-stage” financing is no longer reserved for high-revenue, pre-profitability companies getting ready for an IPO; it is simply any large round of financing done at a high price. An unprecedented 80 private companies have raised financings at valuations over $1B in the last few years. These large, high-priced private financings are the defining characteristic of this particular technology cycle.

Conventional wisdom in the post Web 1.0 era has been that a "normal" state of affairs would be for these relatively mature companies to have reached an IPO already by this point, but due to a variety of terrors — lawyers, regulation, Sarbanes-Oxley, and so on – these poor companies have no choice but to resort to private equity. Gurley points out that this conventional wisdom is both incorrect and dangerous. 

Actually, very few of these companies are at a point where they could or should consider being public. Lost in this conversation are the dramatic differences between a high priced private round and an IPO.

The first critical difference is that these late-stage private companies have not endured the immense scrutiny that is a part of every IPO process. IPOs are remarkably intense, and represent the most thorough inspection that a company will endure in its lifetime. This is why companies and their board of directors agonize over whether or not they are “ready” to go public. Auditors, bankers, three different sets of lawyers, and let us not forget the S.E.C., spend months and months making sure that every single number is correct, important risks are identified, the accounting is all buttoned up, and the proper controls are in place.

He goes on to highlight the many minefields present in these deals, things like shady tactics in reporting gross vs. net revenue, or the broader problem of investing in a business that has had its economics severely distorted by the infusion of enormous amounts of capital, and are "simply selling dollars for $0.85."

All of this suggests that we are not in a valuation bubble, as the mainstream media seems to think. We are in a risk bubble. Companies are taking on huge burn rates to justify spending the capital they are raising in these enormous financings, putting their long-term viability in jeopardy. Late-stage investors, desperately afraid of missing out on acquiring shareholding positions in possible “unicorn” companies, have essentially abandoned their traditional risk analysis. Traditional early-stage investors, institutional public investors, and anyone with extra millions are rushing in to the high-stakes, late-stage game.

Story: Late-stage Private Rounds Are Very Different from an IPO

Predictably Rational

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Bouree Lam in The Atlantic rounds up some recent thinking on the difference between round number pricing and the more common $X.99 style of pricing.

Of the lunch spots near my office, the chain Le Pain Quotidien's menu always demands more of my attention than others. The reason that the menu at Le Pain Quotidien is unusual isn't because they serve open-faced sandwiches or that I'm not sure what kind of cheese Fourme d’Ambert is, but rather that their prices aren't formatted like those of other shops. Organic egg frittata costs $12.00, curried chicken salad tartine is $12.25, a large cappuccino is $5.35. In a world where most prices end with ".99", Le Pain Quotidien's prices make my brain hurt.

The "undercover" economist Tim Harford (he has a book and writes column at the Financial Times by that title) has explained the theories for why prices in our world end in "9." First is something called the left-digit effect, which suggests that consumers just can't be bothered to read to the end of prices. The mind puts the most emphasis on the number on the far-left, so even though $59.99 is closer to $60, it's the "5" that registers. The other theory is that prices ending in ".99" signal a deal to consumers. In short, consumers seem to like prices that end in "9," and experiments say that pricing things this way increases purchases.

This topic is a favorite for those who like to geek out on the subtleties of heuristics and biases (a foundation of behavioral economics) but the idea that consumers are "lazy" when considering prices, that they simply don't notice that $9.99 is a lot like $10.00, seems facile. 

Despite the ubiquitous "9" pricing practice, most numbers used in everyday life are whole numbers. It's not common to say, "just give me 5.27 minutes." But why do Le Pain Quotidien's prices still make my mind reel? A new study in the Journal of Consumer Research might have the answer. Researchers found that shoppers deal with pricing information differently when prices feature round numbers ("5"), as opposed to non-round ones ("4.99"). When something costs $100, consumers tend to rely on their feelings, whereas when something has an irregular price—such as $98.67—consumers have to use reason to compute whether it's a good price.

Perhaps the exact opposite effect is at work, and irregular pricing actually makes consumers "slow down" and pay more attention to the price, leading to a higher liklihood of a sale. 

All The Details Matter

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From the U.K. comes a story that highlights just how quick and ruthless the consequences can be of a tiny data error in this interconnected world: 

The Telegraph reported the British High Court has found government agency Companies House was liable for the demise of engineering firm Taylor & Sons Ltd, after they wrongly recorded that the Welsh company had been wound up.

in 2009 Companies House confused Taylor & Sons Ltd with Taylor & Son Ltd, a completely different company that had gone into liquidation.

When it realised its mistake three days later, Companies House tried to correct it but it was too late.

Taylor & Sons Ltd co-owner and managing director Philip Davison-Sebry told the Telegraph Companies House had already sold the false information to the credit reference agencies.

“We lost all our credibility as all our suppliers thought we were in liquidation,” he said.

“It was like a snowball effect.”

Within just three weeks Taylor & Sons’ 3000 suppliers terminated their orders.

The company is a family run business that was established in 1875 but within two months of the error it had gone into administration.

Also, and presumably unintentionally, demonstrating why Douglas Adams found British bureaucracy such a fertile source of inspiration. 

The Undo Button

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Richard Fergie writing on E-Analytica illustrates perils for marketers when trying to outsmart ad-tech algorithms:

Before Christmas I ran a brand bidding incremental value test for one of my clients. The results showed that nearly all PPC brand traffic was canibalized from organic. We paused the brand campaigns. This is about what happened next.

Mid January, competitor ads on the brand name terms became much more aggressive. We uhmmed and ahhed for a bit because we didn't want to waste money with no direct return but it was also obvious that these competitor ads were causing brand damage. At the end of January the decision was made to re-activate the brand campaigns.

"The undo button doesn't quite work the way you think it does."

For a variety of reasons (very generic brand name, high rolling competitors, other Google subterfuge) this account had always had a high CPC for brand terms (over $1). When we turned the brand adverts on again the CPCs for the brand campaign were the highest in the whole account. This was not good as it was eating our very limited budget.

What happened here is instructive. He had made a decision to run ads against the brand's words (this is the equivalent of running an ad linked to Amazon for people who search for the word "Amazon" in Google), and though it was nominally successful it was apparent that nearly everyone clicking on the ad (and costing money) was someone who would have clicked on the regular organic search results anyways.

So you start out with people Googling your brand name and clicking through to your site for free, and and up with people Googling your brand name and you paying a dollar or more for the same click. Whoops. 

The problem came in three stages. First he noticed his competitors were also bidding for the same words, and driving his costs up, and then when he decided to stop paying for those increasingly expensive clicks, he ended up with less traffic than when he started the whole experiment, and was forced to return and pay even higher prices. Spending money and effort to get fewer visitors is not a good way to make an advertising client satisfied.

Thankfully the story has a happy ending:

To figure out what was going on here I made the following assumptions:

  1. For these queries and advertisers, quality score is essentially click through rate.
  2. Google's estimate for our CTR remained unchanged from when the ads last ran.
  3. The estimate for the CTR of the competitor ads has increased since we stopped running brand ads.

This meant that our competitor's ad rank improved because we left the auction. When we returned our CPCs were higher because the actual CPC is the ad rank of the advertiser below divided by your own quality score.

Using this reasoning I predicted that brand CPC would fall as our competitor's CTR reduced now that our ads were back at the head of the auction.

Two weeks later it looks like I was right: the brand CPC is back to where it was.

An important lesson that with a flawed plan, an online marketing campaign is actually capable of causing real harm, beyond just being ineffective or wasteful. 

The Dangers Of Compound Interest

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Paul Collins, writing in Lapham's Quarterly, takes a fascinating dive into the intriguing history of trusts and estates meant to last for centuries:

The notion of a “Methuselah” trust has a long history—and as with many peculiar notions, Benjamin Franklin got there first. Upon his death in 1790, Franklin’s will contained a peculiar codicil setting aside £1,000 (about $4,550) each for the cities of Boston and Philadelphia to provide loans for apprentices to start their businesses. The money was to be invested at compound interest for one hundred years, then a portion of the fund was to be used in Boston for a trade school. For Philadelphia, he recommended using the money for “bringing, by pipes, the water of Wissahickon Creek into the town”—or perhaps “making the Schuylkill completely navigable.” The whole scheme was perfectly suited for a man who once half-jokingly proposed that, in preference “to any ordinary death” he be “immersed in a cask of Madeira wine” for later revival, as he had “a very ardent desire to see and observe the state of America a hundred years hence.”

Franklin’s plans soared beyond a mere century, though. After a portion of the funds were to be paid out for a first set of public works, the remainder was then to grow for another century—until, by Franklin’s estimate, in 1990 both cities would receive a £4,061,000 windfall from their most famous native son.

Apparently, the era was marked by a bit of a craze for schemes by which a wealthy benefactor, through the miracles of compound interest, would wield influence on society long after death. The story of Peter Thellusson is fascinating, and apparently the inspiration behind the Dickensian Jarndyce v. Jarndyce saga in Bleak House:

Thellusson had an impressive fortune of some £600,000 by his death in July 1797, worth about $68 million today. But at the reading of the old financier’s will, his reckless sons received the shock of their lives. “It is my earnest wish and desire,” he lectured them from beyond the grave, “that they will avoid ostentation, vanity, and pompous shew; as that will be the best fortune they can possess.”

It would also be almost the only fortune they’d possess. Most of the estate was to be invested at compound interest until every currently existing heir was dead, whereupon upward of £19 million would cascade onto their distant descendants. It was as if, one legal scholar marveled, Thellusson had “locked his treasure in a mausoleum and flung the key to some distant descendant yet unborn.”

His heirs did not take the news well: one took out a pistol and shot the old man’s portrait.

 A problem that gave rise to the common-law principle of perpetuities

The Difference Between NYC and Silicon Valley

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In New York, you may be a famous TV personality, who isn't nearly as cool as the fashion designer and makes less than a Goldman analyst, who in turn has money but is far less famous than you. Even if you can get into the hippest club you probably can't break into the ninth generation native gang sitting at the end of the Brooklyn bar talking about the Yankees, or be given the time of day by an NYPD detective.

Each of many subgroups is superlative, the subject of global admiration and books and movies and mythology. You can be truly exceptional in a category or three in a place like this but you will always be surrounded by people that have you badly beat in some other category that matters.

It keeps you humble, and prevents typical delusions like the idea that being the eleventh most crucial person in the creation of a killer 12 month old photo sharing computer program actually makes you consequential.

Advice to Startup Founders: Be Yourself (not too much)

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Recap and full video of Belgrave Trust founder Nick Baily speaking about “Vision & Values” to a class of startup founders at the New York semester of Adeo Ressi’s Founder Institute, 2010.

In the many years I’ve known Adeo Ressi he’s never failed to be an inspiration, for sheer energy if nothing else, but also an unbounded optimism, bias towards getting things done, and a willingness to toss aside the old in favor of a vision of how things could be. So its no surprise that his most recent endeavor, the Founder Institute, a “school” (or bootcamp?) for startup founders, has grown so rapidly.

It’s a no-nonsense semester long class that takes in people at all stages, united only by their desire to be entrepreneurs. A crash course intensive, it covers direct hands-on issues and skills required to run a startup, as well as the intangible stuff that really matters but is rarely taught — like dealing with stress, or partners, and how to explain yourself and what you do (a message Adeo has a gift for delivering with brutal clarity, as this video makes clear).

So needless to say it’s been a blast to participate in this semester’s NYC chapter as a mentor, with chapter head Gabe Zichermann. I had the pleasure of presenting at the semester’s first formal class a few weeks ago, dubbed “Vision & Values,” about the big picture questions that face every founder as they get started.

Here’s the video, and there’s a link to the slides below. Also you can see this clip as well as the great presentations on the same night by fellow presenters Carter Cleveland (art.sy) and Gary Whitehill (NYEW) too via this Vimeo link

Belgrave Trust Founder Nick Baily Speaks at NY Founder Institute Session #2

Slides also viewable here, as PowerPoint and PDF

Making a Mint With The Value of Press

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The Mint.com story shows that often what people feel is an avalanche of “word of mouth” is really just great press.

OK, fine I'll admit it, I'm the last human in the world to dive into Mint.com. As an OCD spreadsheet wielder with every penny I have or don't have tracked and sliced and diced I never really thought it was for me. But today I decided it might be worth giving it a shot. It had some features I wanted to try and let's face it, no matter how good your spreadsheet is, chances are you're no match for a well designed application.

I have to say, I was more than impressed, and my turbocharged spreadsheet feels like a bicycle sitting next to a Porsche 911. I had dim memories of first being tipped by Jason Calacanis via his TechCrunch event with Michael Arrington, and was trying to remember the story of Mint getting off the ground. A quick google revealed this article and sure enough, it was only two years or so ago. They've certainly blown things out since. But reading the interview with founder Aaron Patzer lent even more insight:

We didn’t have money for advertising, so we started a blog. We didn’t have money for writers, so most of our original blog content then was guest posts from other personal finance blogs, plus a couple of columns on people’s worst financial disasters.

To build demand, we started asking for email addresses for our alpha 9 months in advance of launch. Then when we had too many people sign up, we asked people to put a little badge that said “I want Mint” on their blogs to get priority access. We got free advertising and 600 link backs which raised our SEO juice.

When it came time to launch, we choose TechCrunch 40 – why pay $20k for DEMO?

We decided not to do SEM – it’s too easy and too additive. Instead, we relied on press. It’s where I spent 20% of my time. I’m spending it right now while writing this.

The net result has been millions of visitors and 1.5m users essentially for free. Mint is not inherently viral like a social network – but all good things are viral by word of mouth.

And so here we are two years later. We’ve attracted over 1.5 million users, found over $300 million in savings, managed $50 billion in assets, and helped people track nearly $200 billion in purchases.

Notice the interesting way he uses the terms "viral" or "word of mouth" and "press" almost interchangeably. It's a great illustration of a common misconception — which is this idea that all you need is to build something truly impressive and people will beat a path to your door. 

Granted, there's more than a grain of truth to that, brilliant ideas really do spread virally, and with lightning speed. 

 

But often what people feel is an avalanche of "word of mouth" is really just great press. Sure, often the press is "following" the word of mouth buzz. A classic example, perhaps the opening shot of the Web 2.0 era (or the final screaming death of the 1.0 era, depending on how you look at things), is F*ckedcompany.com, which Phil Kaplan famously created for the hell of it over a long weekend, emailed as a link to six people, and woke up a couple days later to find tens of thousands of visitors beating a hole in his servers. 

So, it happens. But more often than not when people say they "keep hearing" about something, or that "everyone's been telling me about" something, they don't mean real actual conversations. Most people move in pretty close-knit circles. What they mean is that everyone in the media has been telling them about it. What feels like word of mouth often isn't so much the presence of tremendous chatter from close, trusted friends and but rather the absence of an over the top, in your face marketing blitz. To be specific, paid marketing, like advertising. Like Superbowl ads. Like Pets.com.

And to go back to the F*ckedcompany.com example, the viral pass-along for that site was nothing short of remarkable, it was like a direct conduit into the zeitgeist. But if my memory serves, it made the Wall Street Journal within the week, and was on to Time, Newsweek, The Today Show, Rolling Stone, and just about everywhere in the media universe in a short amount of time. How many people discovered it through an email forward or water cooler conversation vs. the number that learned about it via some kind of "proper" media channel?

That's something you can only guess at, but it's one example of many. Zappos.com is another that comes to mind in the online/startup space, and there are more examples than you can count in entertainment, music, film, etc. 

In all cases they've hit a trifecta, that combination of a great product (yes, that's still the prerequisite, if you don't have that the rest of this is meaningless) with a core evangelical base of initial users and a successful effort to get that positive word of mouth coming from those who measure their audiences in millions. 

You bet the media has changed, these days the personality with the huge megaphone might be a tech hero with a six figure Twitter follower count. But social media is media. And that personality is a media personality, the underlying point isn't diminished one inch. 

It's not strictly impossible to see success happen purely organically, without any organized plan for publicity. Though I'd say it's nearly always when a founder or principal happens to be naturally press-savvy. But exceptions aside, more often than not it's a thoughtful, considered — and experienced — person or team at the helm, managing the media strategy. 

So, to bring it home with a pun — if you'd like to make a mint, you might want to think about who's minding your press.